MAX BLUMENTHAL

The Hunter Gets Captured By the Game
From White House press pool report:

Uneventful flight, no visitors, but good color after we landed--the senior staff dressed up as duck hunters for Halloween to mock Kerry's recent goose hunting escapade.

After POTUS and FLOTUS and Sen. Jim Bunning emerged, waved and descended from the plane, the senior staff accompanied by Josh Deckard came out and paraded down the stairs dressed in camoflage jackets. Karl Rove and Dan Bartlett also wore hunting caps with the floppy ears. Karen Huges carried a plastic Halloween pumpkin filled with M&Ms from on board the plane. They walked over to the press and Rove threw some of the boxes of M&Ms at us.

"We're duck hunting for Halloween," Bartlett said. "We figured it would be a helpful reminder for Sen. Kerry." Rove and Barlett raised their arms in the air and joined hands to make a big W. Asked about their prediction for the outcome of the election, Rove, Bartlett and Hughes answered, "Victory."

Pathetic.
After my last trip to Vegas, I vowed never to return. But I'm headed there again tonight to canvass. I'll report from the road.

If you know anyone who's undecided, "Intenet Vets for Truth" is the site to point them to. Among its myriad of resources are downloads of Kerry's full Fulbright commission testimony in 1972 and "Going Upriver," George Butler's biodoc on Kerry.

Read my latest, "Reborns for Sharon," a comprehensive profile of Ariel Sharon's advisor, Rabbi Yechiel Eckstein, who has almost singlehandedly cultivated evangelicals as Israel's most reliable base of support in the world. I also detail Christian Zionist influence on Bush's Israel policy, which, almost needless to say, is considerable. Here's an excerpt:

Evangelical support for Israel has increased dramatically in the past four years even as the country's international reputation has suffered as a result of Sharon's repressive, unilateral policies. To most evangelicals, Israel is "covenant land," a place granted to the Jews in God's covenant with Abraham; to many, Israel also represents the eventual landing pad for the Second Coming of the Messiah. While this scenario is not exactly friendly to Jews -- according to premillennial theology, once biblical Israel is fully resettled and Christ returns, Jews must accept him or perish -- evangelicals' theological interest in Israel renders them fervently opposed to any territorial concessions to the Palestinians and, thus, the natural allies of Sharon and his rightist Likud Party.

Rabbi Eckstein seems to have reached the apex of his lonely, 25-year-long quest to cultivate America's evangelical community as Israel's financial lifeline and most ardent lobbying bloc. Once a pariah among his peers, he has gained influence through savvy salesmanship, building his International Fellowship for Christians and Jews into a philanthropic powerhouse that donates tens of millions of dollars to Israel annually. In the process, he has forged close relationships with popular right-wing evangelical leaders such as Pat Robertson and Gary Bauer, as well as White House neoconservatives like Elliott Abrams, who is in charge of Middle East policy on the National Security Council. Together, Eckstein and his allies have played an instrumental role in pressuring the Bush administration to abandon the so-called road map to peace and defend Sharon's ham-handed handling of the occupation unconditionally.

From Truthisall, 10/31:
Election Model Projections

If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, the Electoral Vote Simulation model calculates that John Kerry has a 99.1% probability of winning an electoral vote majority by a 323-215 margin and 51.3% of the popular vote. Kerry won 4957 of 5000 Monte Carlo simulated election trials.

Based on the average of eighteen national polls, the National Vote Projection model calculates that Kerry has a 96.3% probability of winning a popular vote majority with 50.7% of the vote.

I hear internal Dem polling has Kerry up by 8% in Minnesota, up and gaining steadily in Florida, up in Ohio, and likely to take Michigan.

McCain on Osama: He's "Very helpful"
USA Today:

Wrapping up a campaign shadowed by war and terrorism, Bush and Kerry on Saturday responded to the recent Osama bin Laden tape in ways reflecting their long-held campaign strategies.

"It's very helpful to the president," contended Bush ally Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., although the president didn't mention the menacing new message from bin Laden at his first campaign stops on a four-state, 14-hour swing.

Gee whiz! For an Islamofascist, that bin Laden sure can change a tire in a jiffy.
If Bush wins, it will be because Osama resurfaced just in time to remind Americans they are engaged in a war against an abstract concept which only the War President and his council of sages understand. Indeed, Bush and Osama are keeping each other's political careers alive like Arafat and Sharon have for decades.
By the way, check out the link above -- it's a USA Today piece contending Bush has the wind at his back.

Note to Kerry campaign: send the Boss to Michigan!
Detroit News tracking poll:

The News poll of 600 likely voters taken Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday shows Kerry holding a slender 43 percent to 41 percent lead with 12 percent remaining undecided and less than 2 percent backing Ralph Nader. Kerry dropped 4 points from the previous tracking poll in which 200 new respondents are added each day. The narrow gap between the two combatants is well within the 4 percentage points margin of error.

Detroit News pollster Steve Mitchell said the Bush surge is most likely a result of the president's appearance in Pontiac and Saginaw on Wednesday and Thursday. "It is clearly having an impact," he said.

A Nader Factor?
Nader has apparently found a pocket of support in Minnesota, where he's polling at 5%. Could it cost Kerry the state?
Nader polled higher than he finished across the board in 2000. It will be the same this year, but that doesn't mean his presence won't tip the scales to the candidate he wants to win.

What a weird day phone-banking in Los Angeles County's downmarket, Eastern suburbs. More on that later. Right now, here's a poll that is possibly more accurate -- and more telling -- than any statewide poll. It's the Miami Dade tracking poll showing Kerry with overwhelming support. Elian's fanclub isn't even a factor. From the Herald:

If the latest Miami Herald poll is correct, the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.

And if that's true, President Bush is in trouble.

The Herald poll shows Sen. John Kerry winning Miami-Dade County with 54.3 percent of the vote to 41.5 for Bush. Four percent are undecided.

Splitting those undecided voters down the middle, Kerry goes to 56 percent, Bush to 43 and Ralph Nader will end up with less than 1 percent.

If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high. Here's why:

In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County.

Miami poll PDF here.

Is Cheney now officially mired in scandal in every continent except Antarctica?

Could Ridge use the bin Laden tape as a precedent for an orange alert?

At the risk of looking like a mouthpiece, I'm reprinting this press release from the Kerry campaign. I think it speaks volumes, and foreshadows what's to come:

For Immediate Release
October 29, 2004

WHO WAS PLAYING POLITICS WITH THE WAR ON TERROR?

TIMELINE OF BUSH’S DAY OCTOBER 29, 2004

1. BUSH KNEW CONTENTS OF BIN LADEN TAPE BEFORE FIRST EVENT TODAY

According to pool report, Bush was briefed on flight to Manchester. “Pool report #5, 10/29/04: Toledo to Columbus, Ohio. Two more facts. After we landed in Columbus, Scott said Bush was informed of the tape this morning on the flight up to Manchester. Karen Hughes said Bush has not spoken to Kerry about the tape.”

2. IN FIRST SPEECH OF THE DAY, BUSH DOES NOT ATTACK KERRY

Backup: “BUSH in Manchester, NH at 10:45 AM: Bush will make remarks at a "NH Victory 2004" rally in Manchester, NH at the Verizon Wireless Arena at 10:45 AM. [White House, 10/27/04]”

3. IN SECOND SPEECH, BUSH ATTACKS KERRY, PLAYING POLITICS WITH WAR ON TERROR:

“If you believe that America should lead with strength and purpose and confidence in our ideals, I would be honored to have your support, and I am asking for your vote. There are big differences between us as to how to best protect our country. The security of our families is at stake during this election. Senator Kerry says that the war on terror is primarily a law enforcement and intelligence-gathering operation. He says that America must submit to what he calls a global test.

I'm not making that up. (Laughter.) He was standing right about here when he said it during one of the debates. (Laughter.) As far as I can tell, that means our country must get permission from foreign capitals before we act in our own defense. That's what the global test says to me.” [White House release of remarks, 10/29/04]

4. IN TOLEDO EVENT, BUSH AGAIN ATTACKS KERRY

BUSH: In this campaign, there are big differences about how to protect America's families. One time in our debate, my opponent said America must submit to what he calls a global test before we commit force. … My opponent says that September the 11th did not change him much at all. And that's clear in his policies. He believes that the war on terror is primarily a law enforcement and intelligence-gathering operation. September the 11th changed me. I remember that day when I was at Ground Zero on September the14th, 2001. I'll never forget the sights; I'll never forget the sounds. I remember the workers in hard hats yelling at me at the top of their lungs, "Whatever it takes. I remember the first responder -- I can't remember if he was a firefighter or a policeman -- who came out of the rubble, and he grabbed me by the arm and he looked me square in the eye, and he said, "Do not let me down." Ever since that day, I've gotten up every morning thinking about how to better protect our country. I will never relent in defending America, whatever it takes.” (Applause.)

“This election comes down to some clear choices -- five clear choices for America's family. The first clear choice is the most important because it concerns the security of your family. All progress on every other issue dependson the safety of our citizens. This will be the first presidential election since September the 11th, 2001. Americans will go to the polls in a time of war and ongoing threats, unlike any we have faced before. The terrorists who killedthousands of innocent people are still dangerous, and they are determined. The outcome of this election will set the direction of the war against terror. The most solemn duty of the American President is to protect the American people. (Applause.) If America shows uncertainty or weakness during these troubling times, the world will drift toward tragedy. This is not going to happen on my watch. … During the last 20 years in key moments of challenge and decision for America, Senator Kerry has chosen the position of weakness and inaction. With that record, he stands in opposition not just to me, but to the great tradition of the Democratic Party. The party of Franklin Roosevelt, the party of Harry Truman, the party of John Kennedy is rightly remembered for confidence and resolve in times of war and hours of crisis. Senator Kerry has turned his back on "pay any price" and "bear any burden," and he's replaced those commitments with "wait and see" and "cut and run."

BUSH in Toledo, OH at 4:10 PM: Bush will make remarks in Toledo, OH at a "OH Victory 2004" rally at the SeaGate Convention Center at 4:10 PM.

[White House, 10/27/04]

5. BEFORE GETTING ON PLANE, BUSH GIVES UNIFYING STATEMENT ON BIN LADEN TAPE

BUSH: “Earlier today I was informed of the tape that is now being analyzed by America's intelligence community. Let me make this very clear: Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this. I also want to say to the American people that we're at war with these terrorists and I am confident that we will prevail. Thank you very much. Thank you.”

6. IN COLUMBUS, BUSH CLAIMS KERRY WAS PLAYING POLITICS WITH BIN LADEN TAPE



BUSH: “Unfortunately, my opponent tonight continued to say things he knows are not true, accusing our military of passing up a chance to get Osama Bin Laden in Tora Bora. As the commander in charge of that operation, Tommy Frank has said is simply not the case. It's the worse kind of Monday morning quarterbacking. It is especially shameful in the light of a new tape from America's enemy. The Commander in Afghanistan Tommy Franks recently said quote, "The Senator's understanding of events does not square with reality." General Franks said, (BOOOOOO) General Franks said America's Special Forces were actively involved in the search for the terrorists in Tora Bora and intelligence reports at the time placed Bin Laden in any of several different countries. And General Franks said if we'd ever known where Bin Laden was, we would have gotten him.” [White House, 10/27/04]

TIMELINE OF KERRY’S DAY OCTOBER 29, 2004

4:00 PM (approximately)

Before conduction interviews, Kerry is told of the existence of an Osama Bin Laden tape held by Al Jazareera, but not what is on the tape

4:15 PM

Kerry does satellite interviews for one hour, and in answering a question, uses the same language on Bush, Iraq, and Tora Bora he has used throughout the campaign.

5:30 PM

After satellite tour, on the way to the airport, Kerry is briefed by Rand Beers on the content of the tape.

6:10 PM

Statement from Senator Kerry is released, Kerry gives the statement on the tarmac shortly after:

“In response to this tape from Osama bin Laden, let me make it clear, crystal clear. As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes. Period.”

What's Going On at the L.A. Times?
Why won't the LA Times endorse a candidate?! I mean, Michael Kinsley, an avowed liberal, is the Times' editor in chief.
Perhap$ he, like $o many other editor$, wa$ overruled by his publi$her.

The National Council of Churches, Rock the Vote and Res Publica are sponsoring a new program that allows you to do phone banking encouraging low-income voters to get to the polls. The best thing is, you can do it anytime and anywhere. If you're interested, visit votercall.org.

This should be the MoveOn ad (there's a downloadable clip out there) for this weekend:

Q: Mr. President, in your speeches now, you rarely talk or mention Osama bin Laden. Why is that? [...]

BUSH: ... I don't know where he is. Nor -- you know, I just don't spend that much time on him really, to be honest with you [...]

Q: Do you believe the threat that bin Laden posed won't truly be eliminated until he is found either dead of alive?

BUSH: As I say, we hadn't heard much from him. And I wouldn't necessarily say he's at the center of any command structure. And, you know, again, I don't know where he is.

I'll repeat what I said: I truly am not that concerned about him.

Another thing: I'm sure Wolf Blitzer and the pundits are defusing bin Laden's bombshell mockery of Bush's inaction on 9/11 by suggesting that Osama had been influenced ex post facto by his hero, Michael Moore.

October Surprise?
I haven't read or heard any of the punditry on the nin Laden tape -- the only time I've turned on the TV in the past two months was to watch the World Series. What good is Wolf Blitzer's bamboozled guesswork anyway?
My sense is that even though Kerry has attacked Bush bitterly for neglecting bin Laden, the spectre of terror immediately before election day is a godsend for Bush. Just when voters were beginning to refocus on pocketbook issues, 9/11 becomes real again -- and Kerry must issue a call for "unity." Meanwhile, Bush is offered the chance he's yearned for to stand on the tarmac by Air Force one like a middle-American Pericles -- "the War President" -- and remind Americans that "we're at war" while declaring pointedly, "I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this." This type of spectacle will probably not sway either candidate's base, but as for the swing voters "alone in the booth" who mind-bogglingly view Bush as tougher on terror, this could bring them back into Bush's fray.
In fact, a month ago, I spoke to a source close to the Arizona National Guard (he wouldn't go on the record and I couldn't confirm it with the Guard or DHS, so I'm dumping it on the blog) who said Tom Ridge had drawn up a contingency plan to deploy National Guardsmen at polling places in states where intelligence suggested a terror attack might occur. Obviously, the threat never materialized, but this rumor reflect the Bush administration's intent: make terror palpable to undecided voters and remind them of the election's stakes. "Alone in the booth," they won't vote for the liberal.
The most disturbing thing I've heard is a statement by Scott McClellan that if the tape contains any "actionable intelligence," the White House will order an air strike, Tomahawk missile attack or even a Special Forces operation. It's unclear what the White House's definition of "actionable intelligence" is, but with such a bunch of military premature ejaculators in this administration, a November 1st airstrike, however unlikely, isn't unthinkable. There are many x factors, too, including the hyper-partisan Porter Goss as DCI.
My question is, should Kerry attack Bush right away? If I were him, I'd deploy surrogates like Wes Clark and Merrill McPeak to do it for me and hope MoveOn can slap together some weekend ads featuring grainy footage of bin Laden wagging his affeminate finger in slo-mo while an ominous voice details how Bush let him get away at Tora Bora.
The implications of the bin Laden video are far-reaching and should be debated well beyond the election. I hope this episode re-ignites the debate about the US's relationship with Israel.

Redemption
I was a little boy, I don't know how old, and it was drizzling and cold, a typical Boston day. My father and I were walking through Brookline village, where we lived at the time. Passing a bus stop, he saw someone he knew.
"Mike!" he exclaimed.
I looked to my left and saw a meek sort of man in a beige raincoat with bushy eyebrows sitting at a canopied bus stop. It was Mike Dukakis, the governor. And he was taking public transportation. Alone. Sometimes I think I imagined it, and perhaps this memory is indeed a recycled dream, but taking the bus just to take the bus is something a real liberal like Dukakis would do.
A few years later, we moved to Washington, a place with warmer weather and colder people. The Red Sox made the World Series that year for the first time, I think, since 1967. The guys in my fourth grade class were the kind of characters who always pulled for the overdog, from Mike Tyson to Carl Lewis to those coke-snorting, arrogant spazzes, the New York Mets. I correctly predicted my Mets-loving classmates would eventually grow up to be frat-boys (actually, one became a Deadhead, which is kind of like a nomadic, slightly more tolerant variant of the frat-boy archetype). For me, the whole thing was personal.
Game six, the Red Sox are one out from total victory, bases loaded, Bob Stanley pitching to light-hitting Mookie Wilson. Routine grounder to first. Bill Buckner, a poor-fielding, injury-addled veteran mistakenly left in the game, watches the ball roll through his legs. I run upstairs and hide my head. The Mets win the game and go on to take the series. The next day, the future frat-boys in my fourth grade class gloat and chant "Let's go Mets!" at recess.
Two years later, it's Dukakis vs. Bush. It's the bus-riding liberal vs. the high-rolling, jet-set former CIA chief who was born with a silver foot in his mouth. I'll never forget the look on Dukakis' face when, in a debate, he was asked if he'd favor the death penalty for someone who raped and killed his wife. He stood there, petrified, almost cowed, searching for the politically correct answer when he should have smashed his fist on the podium and screamed, "How dare you talk about my wife!" I had witnessed the sleazy political assassination of the kind man at the bus stop with bushy eyebrows. My heart sank.
A few months later, I sat in the living room with my gluttonous, racist, right-wing au pair from Le Pen-land in Southern France watching Dan Rather announce a Bush landslide. All night she cheered, "Go Boosh!" with a mouth full of Entenmans's rasberry danish.
Now everything's come full circle. The Red Sox have won it all, and they way the won tells me there's something different in the air this year. Dukakis' former Lieutenant Governor is poised to retake the White House from a cat who makes his draconian, drug warrior father look sane and moderate. To be sure, Kerry's no Dukakis; when Dukakis took the bus, Kerry chose from his fleet of SUV's. But when Bush calls Kerry a "Massachusetts liberal," when he compares him to Ted Kennedy, I know why I'm behind him. For me, this election isn't only about revenge, it's about redemption.
So now ask yourself, "What the hell am I doing at my computer? Why don't I go down to my local Democratic headquarters and do some phone banking?" If you already are or you're canvassing, you get props. Kerry may or may not have a historic presidency, especially with a GOP congress, but the way he wins, if he does, will no doubt make history. He will win because of turnout, because of the largest and perhaps most inspiring nationwide campaign the grassroots left has ever mustered. Harold Meyerson has compared grassroots 527 and Kerry volunteers to the young leftist men who headed off to Spain in the 1930's to fight the Fascists.
I'm spending most of my time writing obviously, but I'll be at Rep. Hilda Solis' office Saturday doing swing-state phone banking.
Also, I'll be on the Majority Report with Janine Garofalo (I must have spelled her name wrong) and a special guest ("grassy knoll") tonight around 8pm ET/5pmPT.

They spell the word separate, "seperate," they ask if someone has the "kahunas" to do something daring (surf's up, amigo) -- and they're way more subversive than most of the established liberal bloggers I usually read. They're younglibs, a blog self-identified as a forum for progressive politics "from a 17 year old point of view."
What I especially like about the younglibs, besides their fearless and unpolished style, is how they mock other bloggers who blog on weekends for having "no life." True!

Seen any good movies lately? The DVD of "Angels in America" just came out and I had read so many gushing reviews of it (the Times treated it like an Orson Welles masterpiece), I decided to give disc one, which contains the first three episodes, a shot. It turns out Tony Kushner is a monstrously amateurish playwrite who happened to touch upon a hot topic (AIDS and closet homosexuals) when it was still subversive (the Reagan Revolution). Most of the first three episodes are drowned in the prolonged, unimaginative hallucinations of a dysfunctional housewife and a gay AIDS patient on the verge of death. Angels descending through ceilings, a jive-talkin' intergalactic tour guide, a flaming Torah -- these are the kind of images a really gifted kindergartener or fifty chimpanzees with a typewriter or a pretentious indy-dweeb in a Village coffee shop could cook up.
All Kushner's characters do is explain how deeply affected they are, how hard life is and whoa iz me swing lo' sweet ol' chareeyaahht how they wonder if love really exists. In other words, nothing happens but a bunch of lips flappin'.
Al Pacino as Roy Cohn was like a bloody, screeching trainwreck. Okay, Cohn was obnoxious and corrupt, but after 20 minutes in Pacino's skin, he's just another HOOYAH! character. (If I wanted to hear an Italian guy yelling, I'd move back into my old apartment on Figueroa Street next door to that abusive, Sicilian geezer Vito who screamed "Basta!" all night at his nagging wife.) Meanwhile, most of "Angels'" openly gay characters are written like cartoons, like the fairy queens of the homophobic mind. One is a Jewish liberal who prattles on about his guilt; another is a saucy black man who exclaims, "C'mon, Mary. Every homosexual knows it's not purple, it's mauve!" Will they do Judy Garland impersonations in episode four? The only character with any depth is a Mormon Reaganite lawyer struggling with his sexuality and marriage played impeccably by Jeffrey Wright.
I highly do not recommend "Angels in America" unless you're profoundly interesting in seeing an adequate rendering of a terrible document of a fascinating subject and era.
Now, a movie I do recommend, is this ABC clip of Al Qaa Qaa's explosives -- after the invasion of Iraq. Here's a bit of ABC's coverage if you don't feel like watching:

ABC's Martha Radatz: It is the strongest evidence to date the explosives disappeared after the U.S. had taken control of Iraq. This was shot by an ABC affiliate, embedded with the 101st division, when members passed through the facility on april 18th. Nine days after Baghdad fell. Experts who have studied the images, say the barrels seen here, contain the high explosive hmx. The U.N. Markings on the barrels are clear.
I talked to a former inspector that's a colleague of mine. He confirmed that the pictures look just like what he remembers seeing inside those bunkers.
Reporter: the barrels were found inside locked bunkers. Inspectors from the IAEA had sealed the bunkers where the explosives were kept, just before the war began. The seal's critical. The fact there's a photo of what looks like an IAEA seal, means what's behind the doors is hmx. The only sealed bunkers had hmx in them.

If you live in Massachusetts, or are interested in local politics there, check out Progressive Democracts of Massachusetts founding member Fred Clarkson for info on some of you state's most important and interesting races. One race worth watching is for a seat on the arcane Massachusetts Governor's Council, which appoints judges to the state Supreme Court -- and thus plays a major role in deciding contentious national issues like gay marriage. The Progressive Dems' candidate, Peter Vickery, is locked in a tight race with an anti-abortion stealth candidate. Former Clinton Labor secretary Bob Reich is helping Vickery out. You can help here.

Missouri is tightening up, making me wonder why Kerry pulled his ads out of there. Another state he pulled his ads from, Arizona, is also tight. My only guess is that internal polls are showing something wholly different.

This kind of reminds me of the capture anti-abortion terrorist Eric Rudolph, when Ashcroft delegated the press conference to an FBI agent. Meanwhile, when Jose Padilla was arrested on dubious evidence, Ashcroft gave a noisy press conference carried to the nation live via satellite from Moscow. Where is he now? (And where are neocon professional alarmists like Daniel Pipes?) Silent:

Demetrius "Van" Crocker, 39, was characterized by U.S. Attorney Terrell Harris as having "hatred for the government, and anti-Semitic and racist views." Crocker is accused of attempting to obtain Sarin nerve gas and C-4 explosives, according to a federal complaint filed in U.S. District Court on Monday. Crocker was arrested Monday after an undercover federal agent met him in Jackson to deliver fake explosives and what Crocker believed were ingredients for Sarin, considered one of the world's deadliest chemical warfare agents.

Apologies for the light posting days. I've been trying to finish up a lengthy backgrounder of Christian Zionist influence on the White House while Bush is still living there. We'll see if I made it in time.
Anyway, look out for heavier posting from this evening until election day.

Zarqawi: Bush's Target of Convenience
According to Newsweek, the Bush administration waited until it was politically convenient to go after Zarqawi. Not that anyone didn't know that as soon as he became the post-Saddam boogeyman, but it's nice to see it reported and reinforced with evidence:

In June 2002, U.S. officials say intelligence had revealed that Zarqawi and members of al-Qaida had set up a weapons lab at Kirma, in northern Iraq, producing deadly ricin and cyanide.

The Pentagon quickly drafted plans to attack the camp with cruise missiles and airstrikes and sent it to the White House, where, according to U.S. government sources, the plan was debated to death in the National Security Council.

“Here we had targets, we had opportunities, we had a country willing to support casualties, or risk casualties after 9/11 and we still didn’t do it,” said Michael O’Hanlon, military analyst with the Brookings Institution.

Four months later, intelligence showed Zarqawi was planning to use ricin in terrorist attacks in Europe.

The Pentagon drew up a second strike plan, and the White House again killed it. By then the administration had set its course for war with Iraq.

“People were more obsessed with developing the coalition to overthrow Saddam than to execute the president’s policy of preemption against terrorists,” according to terrorism expert and former National Security Council member Roger Cressey.

This month's edition of Pat Buchanan's American Conservative Magazine makes the paleocon case for John Kerry. In fact, the magazine makes the case for almost everyone, including Nader, Badnarik and Peroutka. Everyone, that is, except Bush.
Definitely worth a read, if only for kicks.

The Bush campaign has not only told voters a pack of lies, it lied to its own wolfpack.

The Shame of Paul Berman
I've been wanting to hold former lefty Paul Berman's feet to the fire for a long time, not the least because he helped advance Bush's rush to war as much as other liberal sellouts like Christopher Hitchens and Michael Ignatieff as well as neocon Judy Miller. Even more reprehensible are his shrill diatribes against the anti-war movement. Just check out this excerpt from the original 10/03/04 version of Berman's paranoid, over-indulgent, 5000-word review of Philip Roth's cerebral but demagogic pulp-novel, "The Plot Against America:"

During the last two or three years, large publics in Western Europe and even in the United States have taken up the view that, if extremist political movements have swept across large swaths of the Muslim world, and if Baathists and radical Islamists have slaughtered literally millions of people during these last years, and then have ended up at war with the United States, Israel and its crimes must ultimately be to blame. And if America has been drawn into war in Iraq, it is because President Bush's second-level foreign policy advisers include a few Jews (though all of his toplevel advisers are Protestants), and these second-level figures have manipulated everyone else to the bidding of Ariel Sharon.

The final line in that passage is very important and I'll explain why. It's obviously silly -- Wolfowitz, Perle and Feith as "second level figures" is just incredulous -- but it's more than that. Berman has essentially coopted the cynical technique employed by everyone from David Brooks to Ann Coulter to defend the neocons. Either Berman doesn't realize what he's doing and is falling back on the victimhood instincts he developed during his halcyon days in the 60's, or he, like his pal Hitchens, has become a card-carrying neocon.

At some point, either the Times editors or Berman realized how disgusting and patently false it was to label anti-war critics of the neocons as anti-Semites. So they apparently changed Berman's review and REMOVED the line I highlighted in the above excerpt from the Times' original version.

Here is the same graf from the Times' edited version of Berman's screed:

Roth must have been hard at work on "The Plot Against America";, composing his thoughts or sitting down to write, during the months that led up to the Iraq war. And, during those months, large publics in Western Europe and even in the United States clung to the view that, if extremist political movements had swept across big swathes of the Muslim world, and if Baathists and radical Islamists had slaughtered literally millions of people during these last years, and then had ended up at war with the United States, Israel and its crimes were ultimately to blame.

Berman's spirited defense of that wonderful humanitarian, Ariel Sharon, is still present in his review, but what happened to his attack on anti-war protesters as anti-Semites? Why is it gone? Did Berman change his mind or was he simply embarassed? Why hasn't the Times issued a correction? Is the Times trying to preserve Berman's flagging reputation as a serious intellectual?

STOP HR 10, Patriot II in Disguise!
I rarely do "action alerts" or solicit money for anything unless I feel really strongly about it. HR 10, the House intelligence reform bill, contains a number of provisions that deeply trouble me and should be troubling to anyone who cares about human rights, immigrant rights, civil liberties or the basic preservation of the Constitution. These provisions have been tacked onto the bill by wingnuts like James Sensenbrenner and Tom Delay in a cynical effort to present the Democrats with a stark choice between capitulating or appearing to flout the 9/11 Commission's recommendations. You know how this works -- it's an election year ploy just like lifting the assault weapons ban and legalizing handguns in DC.
And just like the hangun bill, which was pushed by the NRA and the KKK-linked Gun Owners of America, HR 10 is backed by some of the most reactionary elements in American politics. The Federation of Americans for Immigration Reform, which has been financed by a white supremacist Eugenics organization, (GOA and FAIR's racist links explained here) is one of many extremist groups lobbying for anti-immigrant provision that will do the following:

- Deny immigrants the right to have a court review a deportation order--in effect, suspending habeas corpus for the first time since the Civil War (Section 3009)

- Allow deportations to a country with no government (Section 3035)

- Allow deportations to a country where immigrants fear persecution (Section 3009) or torture (Section 3032)

- Allow more mandatory indefinite detentions (Section 3032)

- Allows Homeland Security to deport immigrants before federal courts have decided on their case (Section 3010)

- Make it more difficult for people fleeing torture to gain asylum (Section 3007)

Many of these provisions have been directly lifted from the Patriot Act II.
Before HR 10 is approved by the Senate, voice your disapproval of its draconian provisions with these four key senators (ask to speak to their legislative aide):

1. Senator Mike DeWine from Ohio (202-224-2315) - Republican

2. Senator Joe Lieberman from Connecticut (202-224-4041) - Ranking Democrat. (On Wednesday he had all but bowed to the GOP. Crypto-winger Joe always needs a little shove in the correct direction.)

3. Senator Richard Durbin from Illinois (202-224-2152)

4. Senator Frank Lautenberg from New Jersey (202-224-3224)

And if you can, call the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121 and ask to speak to your representative.

Obviously, the way California votes in not indicative of the way the country will vote. The state's Democrats are far more liberal than Dems in say, Iowa or Arkansas. And Republicans in California's inland areas are extremely conservative; they've sent some of the most draconian figures in the country to Sacramento (one name that comes to mind is Christian Reconstructionist Tom McClintock). California voters made up their minds early on, leaving only a few undecideds sitting on the fence all summer, and polling numbers have shifted very little -- until now.
Now, California undecideds are finally paying attention to the election and the issues, and Kerry has extended his lead in the state. I think that's a trend that will play out in swing states where Kerry either leads or trails within the margin of error since there is little difference between undecided voters anywhere; they are basically apolitical CSI Miami watchers. That's why the LA Times' latest poll is actually significant:

"Four years ago, Bush lost the state by 12 points, and this year the president has not made any inroads into having voters support him for president," said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. "In fact, the president is losing by an even larger margin."

About 57% of likely voters disapproved of Bush's general job performance, a slight uptick from 55% a month ago. But the sentiment was more intense, with 50% saying they "strongly disapproved" of Bush, up from 45% a month ago.

At the same time, strong support for Kerry also grew, with 31% of likely voters declaring that they had a very favorable impression of him, up from 25% one month ago. The state's subtle transition was echoed by Larkin.

"I started out voting against Bush, but the more I've listened to Kerry or read about him, the more I'm voting for Kerry," Larkin said. "He's very much aware of other parts of the world. I think he is more respected internationally, and that's primarily because he has respect for other countries."

The Times Poll interviewed 1,345 registered voters from Oct. 14 to 18. Among them, 925 were deemed likely to vote on Nov. 2.

According to the poll, voters are keenly interested in the election regardless of California's position on the electoral sidelines. Almost four in five voters said they were very interested in the election, a sentiment shared by members of both major political parties. At about the same time in 2000, a much smaller 56% of likely voters described themselves as very interested.

Groping For Ohio
Correct me if I'm wrong, but no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio, and Bush has been there only once or twice this month. It's not like Ken Mehlman's stupid and is simply neglecting the state; the problem is that every time Bush shows his face in Ohio, his numbers there plummet.
Now they're lining the Gropinator up to save the day, assuming that he can summon fans of his annual fitness competition in Columbus and use his personality to trump policy. I'm sure Arnold will do it, but he still hasn't committed himself.
I'm not discounting Arnold's attractiveness to voters outside Bush's base, but I wonder if Bush can truly rely on the big lug's star-power to paper over his shambolic record on jobs -- an issue which is paramount in Ohio.

Santorum's Frivolous Lawsuit
Remember when Mr. "Man-on-Dog Sex" Santorum said, “While we may have people, individuals, who hit the jackpot and win the lottery in some cases, that is not exactly what our legal system should be designed to do.” Now, of course, he's spearheading the Republicans' sorry attack on trial lawyers, which is really a smokescreen for Bush's failure on healthcare and a substitute for his lack of a healthcare plan.
Just for the record, in 1999, Rick Santorum testified in his wife’s $500,000 medical malpractice case against a chiropractor. Mrs. Santorum claimed she suffered back injuries caused by her chiropractor and said her injuries hurt her husband’s re-election campaign. Although her medical costs totaled $18,800, she also sought “pain and suffering” and anticipated future medical costs. When all was said and done, she got $350,000 – although a judge eventually reduced the award to $175,000.

Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Boston « 2 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 10 13 0
NY Yankees 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 5 1
Preview | Matchup | Lineup | Log | Wrap | Box
W:D.Lowe(2-0) L:K.Brown(1-1)
HR: BOS- J.Damon 2 (2), D.Ortiz (4), M.Bellhorn (2) NYY- None

And now, to Election Model Projections.

Projected Vote (%)
9 Poll Average + undecided allocation
18 Poll Average + undecided allocation
Monte Carlo Simulation

Kerry
51.18
50.70
51.39 / 312 EV

Bush
48.82
49.30
48.69 / 226 EV

Win Probability
Majority Vote

1.03% Margin of Error
Majority Vote

0.73% Margin of Error
Electoral Vote Win% in 5000 trials

Kerry
98.73
96.98
96.32

Bush
1.27
3.02
3.68

All models assume Kerry will win 60% of the undecided/other vote
Latest Bush Job Approval Average Rating: 48.10% (11 Polls)

And a prediction from Votemaster:

Predicted Final Results: Kerry 311 Bush 227

 

Cite, Don't Bite!
Salon has a remarkably familiar story out about Republican voter-fraud kingpin Nathan Sproul. Here's part of what Farhad Manjoo wrote:

Democrats in Arizona who claim to see a connection between Nathan Sproul and the efforts of the state and national Republican Party point to this fact: Sproul's Phoenix office is located at 4715 N. 32nd St., Suite 107. The offices of Gordon C. James Public Relations, a Republican political firm run by a former member of the advance team for George H.W. Bush, and his wife Lisa, the head of the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign in Arizona, are located at 4715 N. 32nd St., Suite 104. At least geographically, then, Nathan Sproul is very close to a few of the most well-connected, powerful GOP politicos in the state.

But do the connections go beyond the physical? Gordon James says no; he and his wife don't have a working relationship with Nathan Sproul, he said. "We don't do any business together," James said. "I've been with the Bush family for 26 years. I barely know Nathan. We both happen to be Republicans." Before she began working on the Bush-Cheney campaign, though, Lisa James did head a group called No Taxpayer Money for Politicians, formed in the spring by Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., to pass a ballot initiative that would have essentially repealed Arizona's Clean Elections campaign finance system. Sproul, a former head of the Arizona Republican Party, was hired by No Taxpayer Money for Politicians to conduct a signature drive to get the anti-Clean Elections bill on the ballot.

Even more interesting is the fact that that segment of Manjoo's piece is basically a reprint of an article I wrote which broke the story -- six days ago. Thanks for the credit!

AlterNet has learned that Sproul, the former Arizona Republican Party and Christian Coalition director, has cozy ties to a group of consultants working on the Bush/Cheney campaign. According to a Democratic source well-placed in Arizona political circles, Sproul's firm, Sproul and Associates, operates next door to the office of Gordon C. James Public Relations (GCJPR) in Phoenix, a Republican PR company which is coordinating various Bush/Cheney campaign events nationwide and has provided PR services for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Last spring, one of GCJPR's executives, who is an advisory board member of Bush's re-election campaign, served as the chair of a ballot campaign Sproul was quarterbacking, while, according to the source, Sproul collaborated with a GCJPR employee who is a White House consultant on a scheme to get independent candidate Ralph Nader on the Arizona ballot....

James did not mention that one of GCJPR's executives, George W. Bush for President advisory board member Lisa James, served as chairwoman of an Arizona ballot initiative that Sproul spearheaded last spring called "No Taxpayer Money For Politicians." The ballot measure, which was soundly defeated, was a right-wing, corporate-funded effort to ban candidates for state office from receiving public money for their campaigns. Sproul's Voter Outreach of America spearheaded the measure's petition drive. In her capacity as chairwoman, Lisa James operated directly out of Sproul's office.

Update: Farhad Manjoo and I have cyber-kissed and made up.

One-third of the Axis of Evil makes it official:

TEHRAN, Iran - The head of Iran's security council said Tuesday that the re-election of President Bush (news - web sites) was in Tehran's best interests, despite the administration's axis of evil label, accusations that Iran harbors al-Qaida terrorists and threats of sanctions over the country's nuclear ambitions.

Historically, Democrats have harmed Iran more than Republicans, said Hasan Rowhani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security decision-making body.

"We haven't seen anything good from Democrats," Rowhani told state-run television in remarks that, for the first time in recent decades, saw Iran openly supporting one U.S. presidential candidate over another.

Though Iran generally does not publicly wade into U.S. presidential politics, it has a history of preferring Republicans over Democrats, who tend to press human rights issues.

 

Remembering James Chace:

In the summer and fall of this year, James was busily writing articles, including one for The New York Review of Books that dealt with U.S. policy toward Iraq. James applied his understanding of the American tradition in foreign policy to the current fiasco. It is worth quoting him:

But Iraq in 2003 was not liberated France in 1944; nor can the emergence of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949 serve as a model for imposing liberal democracy in Iraq. This has not prevented the U.S. from trying to impose its own protégés on Iraq, as if it were postwar Germany.

Nonetheless, strategic failure and violent day-to-day bundling have their consequences, and American history suggests that such ill-conceived adventures as the Iraq war and occupation could lead the U.S. to turn away from imperial aspirations … .

Once again, James cited “the prudential realism that characterized most of the policies of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, and John F. Kennedy. Such an approach, reflecting a desire to, in Dean Acheson’s words, 'limit objectives, to get ourselves away from the search for the absolute,' also implies that in pursuing national interests, American leaders must seek allies among other governments and peoples who see those interests as coinciding with their own and who are willing to collaborate with the United States in the growing numbers of international institutions, governmental and nongovernmental.”

Here's one of James' last articles, on the consequences of George W. Bush's reckless abandonment of the principles of FDR, Acheson, Keynes and the post-WWII generation. Like all of his work, it's more timely now than ever.

I don't have a link right now, but shit, I can't make this stuff up:

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Keyes proclaimed at a rally on Saturday that children raised by gay couples are certain to become victims of incest. "If we do not know who the mother is, who the father is, without knowing all the brothers and sisters, incest becomes inevitable. Whether they mean it or not, that is what will happen," explained Keyes.

Come on, just a little bit further, keep going...

A preview of John Gorenfeld's "I Approve This Messiah," is out. As far as I know, this is the only preview of what is to be the only film about the empire of the one and (fortunately) only Rev. Sun Myung Moon.

Thinking of doing swing state phone banking? You better not have a British accent.
Last week, the UK's Guardian asked its readers to send apparently anti-Bush emails to undecided voters in the US. Here are some of my favorite responses:

Have you not noticed that Americans don't give two shits what Europeans think of us? Each email someone gets from some arrogant Brit telling us why to NOT vote for George Bush is going to backfire, you stupid, yellow-toothed pansies ... I don't give a rat's ass if our election is going to have an effect on your worthless little life. I really don't. If you want to have a meaningful election in your crappy little island full of shitty food and yellow teeth, then maybe you should try not to sell your sovereignty out to Brussels and Berlin, dipshit. Oh, yeah - and brush your goddamned teeth, you filthy animals.
Wading River, NY

Consider this: stay out of American electoral politics. Unless you would like a company of US Navy Seals - Republican to a man - to descend upon the offices of the Guardian, bag the lot of you, and transport you to Guantanamo Bay, where you can share quarters with some lonely Taliban shepherd boys.
United States

KEEP YOUR FUCKIN' LIMEY HANDS OFF OUR ELECTION. HEY, SHITHEADS, REMEMBER THE REVOLUTIONARY WAR? REMEMBER THE WAR OF 1812? WE DIDN'T WANT YOU, OR YOUR POLITICS HERE, THAT'S WHY WE KICKED YOUR ASSES OUT. FOR THE 47% OF YOU WHO DON'T WANT PRESIDENT BUSH, I SAY THIS ... TOUGH SHIT!
PROUD AMERICAN VOTING FOR BUSH!

Real Americans aren't interested in your pansy-ass, tea-sipping opinions. If you want to save the world, begin with your own worthless corner of it.
Texas, USA

Equal justice under law?

Here are two choice passages from Lynne Cheney's literary masterwork, "Sisters," which, unlike the tawdry mouth of John Kerry, never once mentions the naughty word "lesbian":

The women who embraced in the wagon were Adam and Eve crossing a dark cathedral stage -- no, Eve and Eve, loving one another as they knew would not be able to once they ate of the fruit and knew themselves as they truly were. She felt curiously moved, curiously envious of them. She had never to this moment thought Eden a particularly attractive paradise, based as it was on naivete, but she saw that the women in the cart had a passionate, loving intimacy forever closed to her. How strong it made them. What comfort it gave.

For some reason I hear Melissa Etheridge playing in the background. And is that chamomile tea I smell? Jeepers, I didn't know antifeminist culture warriors drank that. Wait, there's more:

The note was short. "Helen, my joy and my beloved," it began:
Why do we stay? I have no reason beyond a few pupils who would miss me briefly, and your life would be infinitely better away from him. Let us go away together, away from the anger and imperatives of men. We shall find ourselves a secluded bower where they dare not venture. There will be only the two of us, and we shall linger through long afternoons of sweet retirement. In the evenings I shall read to you while you work your cross-stitch in the firelight. And then we shall go to bed, our bed, my dearest girl....

 

Read my latest in today's Salon.com, "Backlash on the Border," a piece about immigration politics in Arizona. Immigration may not be as hot a topic on a national level as it is on the border, but I would be willing to wager a non-essential organ that it will be fairly soon. Here's a snippet:

Thanks to Bush's ensuing silence on immigration reform, the degenerating situation in Iraq and a grinding presidential race, the intraparty conflict Bush's proposal caused has largely subsided. But in Arizona, where rapidly changing demographics and a constant stream of Mexicans and Central Americans crossing the border into the state have inspired a wave of public resentment, the anti-immigration backlash is still gaining momentum. It has propelled a divisive anti-immigrant ballot proposition that is using anti-elitist populism and coded racial appeals to harvest votes from fearful and frustrated Arizonans. Some of the proposition's supporters are even working to defeat Bush in Arizona. While it's hard to gauge how much impact they are having, the furor over immigration could spell trouble for the GOP -- not only by weakening Bush's base but also by awakening the sleeping giant of Arizona politics -- Latino voters, most of whom are Democrats.

"Bush brought the immigration debate to the table. But he's scared now because he's gotten so much blow-back from his own party," said Virginia Abernethy, a Vanderbilt University emeritus professor and self-described "ethnic separatist" who edits the journal of the Council of Conservative Citizens, self-advertised as a "European-American rights" group. "And now," she told me, "I think we're getting to a tipping point where the base will not vote for a politician who doesn't represent their views on immigration."

In July, Abernethy was appointed national chairwoman of the campaign for the Arizona ballot initiative, Proposition 200. The proposition would bar undocumented immigrants from receiving a host of public services and, because of an unfounded assumption by its proponents that undocumented immigrants are voting in state elections, would require Arizonans to prove their citizenship when they vote.

Check out veteran right-wing watcher Fred Clarkson's list of right-wing electoral threats to George W. Bush.
Bush has done better than his father in making sure he has no enemies to his right, but he can't please them all. Indeed, something the square media has almost completely missed is that Judge Roy Moore has been campaigning alongside American Independent Party candidate Michael Peroutka.
Another development that's been kept under the radar, though I can't prove it, is that a significant number of Reform Party supporters of H. Ross Perot are supporting Ralph Nader, who has struck a somewhat isolationist, protectionist tone during his campaign. Just read his interview with Pat Buchanan and you'll see what I mean.
Meanwhile, Perot's former VP candidate, Adm. Jim Stockdale -- "Who Am I? Why Am I Here?" -- is working with a California anti-immigration group that's running a series of anti-Bush radio ads in Arizona and Nevada.
It's hard to gauge the effect the far-right will have on Bush's aspirations, but it's something to keep in mind.

Rathergate was just the beginning. There are many more false documents. Among the most pernicious frauds are those supposedly proving Bush's DUI, his friendship with Ken Lay, his daughter's arrest for possesion of alcohol and his ignorance of Bin Laden's attack plans.
The proof's at YesBushCan.com.

The Mayday for Marriage rally on the Mall yesterday might have looked like a giant gathering of hate-filled, culturally deprived troglodytes, but in fact, it was just a big get-out-the-vote Bush rally. And big Bush rallies are never full of hate-filled troglodytes. I was there at Madison Square Garden to see Zell Miller, the preacher from "Footloose," speak, and it was nothing like that. Just listen to what Rabbi Daniel Lapin, aka Gingrich's Rabbi, had to say at the rally:

"...Among humans in every place and at every time, the safety and welfare of women and children depends upon sculpting the raw rock of masculine aggressiveness and sexuality into the work of art we call marriage. Prudent people protect it."

"The raw rock of masculine aggressiveness?" What the fuck? I don't know what "raw rock" this Judeo-pervert is talking about but it sounds like that crack rock he's been smoking with Pookie from New Jack City.
Now, of course this rally had the token "I was lost, but now I'm found" gay-man-gone-straight -- some guy named Alan Chambers (any relation to Whittaker?). Here's his uplifting tale:

"In 1990 at the age of 18, despite my Christian upbringing and relationship with the Lord, I chose to give into the homosexual feelings that had been resident within me since puberty. I concluded that I was gay and that the missing piece of my life's puzzle could only be found in a sexual and emotional relationship with another man. I gave up everything I knew searching for that man, believing that once I found him we would live happily ever after. God had another plan. From the beginning of time he made man and woman as each others only compliment for marriage. After more than two years of searching, failing and wandering, I chose to trust the Lord and what I knew was right.

Fourteen years later I am married to my best friend, my wife Leslie, we are expecting our first child and I lead the international network of ministries called Exodus - the ministry that God used to save my life and set me free. I have lived on both sides of this debate and I believe in marriage the way God intended it. The marriage laws that are in place saved me from making one if not many detrimental mistakes and I am committed to battling to preserve those laws and thus saving other kids from making life altering mistakes!"

I'm sure your wife is proud to have your raw rock, Alan. And I know if it weren't for those "marriage laws that are in place," whatever they are, you might be at some dungeon-like leather bar lifted from the homophobic imagination right now.
Now, I'm glad some members of the L7 media reported on this, even though they missed the hilarity of it:

The event was part of an effort by Christian evangelical leaders and lobbying groups to mobilize religious conservatives as the presidential election nears. Dozens of such efforts are scheduled to take place across the country in the coming weeks.

"We support traditional marriage, and we want our voices heard," said Cindy Hill of Hagerstown, holding a sign that said, "Don't Mess with Marriage."

The part-time bookkeeper attended with her husband, Larry Hill. "The politicians pay attention to numbers, and we want to support our values," she added.

"We believe it's important that the marriage be between men and women only," said Sean Bucek of Baltimore, who was with his wife, Adriana. "Families are falling apart. Children are not being raised up as they should be."

The crowd, which included couples and families with young children, stretched from Seventh Street NW to the merry-go-round in front of the Smithsonian Castle, a distance of about three blocks.

 

What's Happening in Haiti? Just Look at Iraq.
I know amidst the height of the election and with Iraq degenerating in ways never thought possible, Haiti might seem like a sideshow. But Haiti can't be ignored; in fact, as another catastrophic failure of the Bush doctrine, it's an important, though untold, election season story.
This is the deal in a nutshell:
The US has always imposed onerous restrictions on Haiti's government, but the Bush administration backed out of Clinton's policy of contructive engagement, curtailed its diplomatic ties with the Aristide government and delegated the ideologues at the International Republican Institute to ramp up their destabalization campaign.
Give my piece "The Other Regime Change" a read. You'll find it to the left on your screen. It details this destablization campaign along with the Bush administration links to the coup that drove Aristide into exile.
The most important thing to remember is that Aristide, despite all his failings, was still the most popular politician in Haiti by almost 30 points according to every poll that's been taken. He was the figurehead of a popular movement called Lavalas, which is Creole for "wave," like a wave of humanity.
Now Bush, at the urging of the State Departments most right-wing elements (like Roger Noriega) has installed Gerard Latortue -- "the turtle" -- a leader who is the Haitian equivalent of Hamid Karzai. He has absolutely no domestic constituency, no power outside the capitol and no policy other than chasing foreign aid.
Doesn't anyone wonder why the hurricane damage to Haiti was so massive? Because there is no government infrastructure left after the Bush-backed coup. Haiti's jewel of a city, Gonaives, was not washed away because of mother nature's cruelty -- it drowned in a sea of political incompetence. Here's what the Council on Hemispheric Affairs has to say:

A recent example of Latortue’s ineptitude was his hapless response to Tropical Storm Jeanne, the natural tragedy that took several thousand lives on the island and cost tens of millions of dollars in personal and public property loss. While the storm was raging, Latortue and his confederates were not even competent enough to take the basic step of establishing an emergency national radio grid over which they could have broadcast calls to the population to go to high ground in order to escape from the flooding. This abdication of responsibility alone should have been enough to justify calling for his and his colleague’s resignations.

In addition to Latortue, Secretary of State Colin Powell was quick to blame last week’s street violence on supporters of Aristide’s Lavalas Party, stating that “These are the old Aristide elements and some criminal elements who are trying to take advantage of the situation.” However, protesters present at the demonstration claim that it was the police who first opened fire on a crowd of, at that time, unarmed pro-Aristide militants.

What Powell refuses to acknowledge is that the recent violence and protests in Haiti are not random acts, but are the direct result of popular resentment against the U.S.-executed coup d’etat which he authored, and which brought about the replacement of Aristide last February with someone whom the citizens view as an impostor. Haitians are also outraged over the manner in which Latortue has embraced rather than condemned the island’s ex-military and rebel police who have persecuted thousands of Lavalas members, solely on the basis of their political beliefs. In Latortue’s first public appearance as prime minister, he went so far as to acclaim Haiti’s rebel leaders—many of whom are now highly regarded by the current government for their gun-slinging abilities. He also praised thugs and FRAPH paramilitary death squad members, whom he has since referred to as “freedom fighters.” This even sent his State Department godfathers into a free fall.

Now, in a situation eerily similar that in Iraq, the Bush-installed Latortue regime is facing a popular insurgency from the slums where the Lavalas movement draws its power-base. At the behest of the business community (read: Levi's sweatshop owners), Latortue has jailed nearly every holdover of the Aristide regime in a desperate attempt to stifle dissent. Colin Powell has blamed Aristide for orchestrating the violence just like the administration incredulously accused Saddam of running the insurgency. Tragically, Haiti is becoming a mirror image of Iraq, another example of the Bush doctrine's failure.
Here is a report about the mounting rebellion against Haiti's puppet government (sorry, no link now):

October 15, 2004
Haiti slum repels police amid angry protests
Haiti Information Project (HIP)

Port au Prince, Haiti(HIP)- Armed units of the Haitian
National Police (PNH) entered the pro-Ariside slum of
Bel Air as thousands of residents took to streets to
demand the return of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.
Marchers defied a shutdown of the capital by the
business community and threats issued by the former
military. Heavy gunfire erupted as the police
reportedly fired shots to disperse the crowd. The
police were then forced to withdraw as unidentified
gunmen returned fire from surrounding buildings in a
thunderous volley.

Haiti has been rocked by violence since September 30th
after police opened fire on unarmed demonstrators
demanding the return of President Jean-Bertrand
Aristide and condemning political persecution of his
Lavalas political party. Aristide was ousted last
February 29th amid charges he was kidnapped by U.S.
Marines and is living as guest in the Republic of
South Africa.

Two demonstrators were killed on Sept. 30th and the
U.S.-backed government claimed that the headless
bodies of three policemen were later discovered. The
identities of the headless policemen were released at
a funeral held for them earlier this week. The bodies
of the headless men were reportedly cremated before
journalists and human rights groups were given an
opportunity to perform an independent examination of
the corpses to confirm the government’s claims.

In a statement portraying Aristide’s Family Lavalas
party as terrorists, the Haitian Chamber of Commerce
called for a National Day of Reflection today asking
for all schools and businesses to stay closed and for
all residents of Port au Prince to stay in their
homes. The U.S. Embassy closed its doors as well in a
gesture meant to symbolize their approval of the
business community’s initiative. Several U.S. citizens
expressed their anger at the closure stating that it
“left them defenseless” in the event they were
required to evacuate Haiti in the face of mounting
violence.

Tensions heightened in the capital as several
pro-Aristide slums announced their intention to defy
the shutdown and protest on the 10th anniversary of
the ousted president’s return to Haiti in 1994.
Aristide was overthrown by Haiti’s military in a
brutal coup in September 1991and returned to Haiti on
October 15, 1994 after Clinton committed 20,000 U.S.
troops to “Operation Restore Democracy.”

Aristide supporters had braced themselves for today’s
attacks after the U.S.-backed government and United
Nation’s forces allowed armed units of the former
military to enter the capital unchallenged over the
past two days. This has led to charges by Lavalas
representatives of a “second coup” and UN complicity
in allowing the former military to return to power in
Haiti. Two trucks of former military opened fire on
residents at Delmas 2 in the slum of La Saline this
morning and could be seen setting up roadblocks on
Route Frere.

Today’s violence comes two days after the arrest of a
Catholic priest, Father Gerard Jean-Juste, the
government accused of trafficking in weapons and
harboring gunmen in his parish. Human rights
organizations and legal experts have condemned the
arrest as “arbitrary” and an effort by the authorities
to repress political dissent.
Earlier this week, UN soldiers and Haitian police
conducted numerous joint raids in several poor
neighborhoods in the capital known for their support
of Aristide. Hundreds have been arrested yet few
weapons have been confiscated as the violence
continues for a second straight week.

The morgue at the General Hospital issued an emergency
call this afternoon stating that there was no longer
space for new corpses and it had reached full
capacity.
=====
The Haiti Information Project (HIP) is a non-profit alternative news
service
providing coverage and analysis of breaking developments in Haiti.

Well before voter fraud kingpin Nathan Sproul was a household name, I was following his activities in Arizona (could I be any more self-aggrandizing?). While I was able to confirm that he surreptitiously collected signatures to get Nader on the Arizona ballot through his RNC-funded operation, Voter Outreach of America, I didn't know until recently just how close he is to the Bush campaign. So now I've added this new thread to the sordid Sproul saga:

AlterNet has learned that Sproul, the former Arizona Republican Party and Christian Coalition director, has cozy ties to a group of consultants working on the Bush/Cheney campaign. According to a Democratic source well-placed in Arizona political circles, Sproul's firm, Sproul and Associates, operates next door to the office of Gordon C. James Public Relations (GCJPR) in Phoenix, a Republican PR company which is coordinating various Bush/Cheney campaign events nationwide and has provided PR services for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Last spring, one of GCJPR's executives, who is an advisory board member of Bush's re-election campaign, served as the chair of a ballot campaign Sproul was quarterbacking, while, according to the source, Sproul collaborated with a GCJPR employee who is a White House consultant on a scheme to get independent candidate Ralph Nader on the Arizona ballot. In both instances, Sproul's company, Voter Outreach of America, was involved in gathering signatures....

The cozy ties between Sproul and Bush operatives should raise a serious question: Is Sproul simply an overzealous lone wolf, or are his activities part of a concerted effort by the Bush/Cheney campaign to subvert the democratic process?

Indeed, Sproul works right next door to a group of consultants handling Bush's ground game in Arizona. His office number is not listed under the name of his firm, though; it's listed under the committee for failed ballot initiative he ran last summer called "No Taxpayer Money for Politicians." When I called there, the secretary answered "Sproul and Associates."
Sproul's shady tactics have been well known in Arizona's political circles for some time. I guess he just wasn't slippery enough away from his home turf.

Forget the polls -- it's all about turnout.

If you absolutely must see proof that Bush made an "I'm not that concerned" about Osama remark, here it is.
The clip is actually kind of memorable.

Do you live in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia or Wisconsin?
Well, according to professional theocratic rightist Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, you are at high risk of having Roe v. Wade effectively nullified in your state if Bush wins and appoints a new Supreme Court justice.
I've somehow come to accept that in a second Bush term, he and his beady-eyed neocons will mislead us into crazy wars to unseat tin-pot dictators, push regressive economic policies and turn Appalachia into a chamber pot for the coal industry. I wouldn't accept any of that; I'm just saying it wouldn't shock me.
But somehow a Christo-neaderthal nullification of Roe v. Wade is just unimaginable.

Panderfest
Condi Rice and Kerry's hawk-lite Richard Holbrooke will address AIPAC this weekend. It's sure to be a contest of who can be more willfilly ignorant about realities in the Middle East.
By the way, what happened the neocons' shabbos goy, Larry Franklin? Has he been put in the icebox of history to shiver alongside Lynndie England? According to Ha'aretz, the Holbrooke/Rice address will be

the first time a senior administration official has appeared before AIPAC since the media broke the story of an FBI investigation into suspicions that a Pentagon employee, Larry Franklin, had passed classified information to AIPAC officials, who in turn passed it on to Israel.

According to reports in the American press, Rice had actually been informed of the ongoing investigation three years ago, but she, President George Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell continued to make periodic appearances at AIPAC events

"W" Stands for What?
Here's uncrazy Republican David Gergen on the debates:

"The debates have changed the dynamics of the race. Most importantly, among women, and let me come back to that. Before the first debate, if you looked at the CNN-Gallup poll for example, a week before the first debate, the President was not only ahead substantially among men, but he was ahead 10 points ahead among women, 10 points ahead among women. Coming into this debate, John Kerry enjoyed an 8 point lead among women, there was an 18 point swing among women. That's what's tightened up this race and I thought what we heard tonight was John Kerry very directly appealing to women. It's the first time he's done that. I thought it was a very shrewd move on his part." [PBS, 10/13/04]

I don't know if anyone quite realizes the potential significance of a Boston Red Sox/Houston Astros World Series matchup. It would be an October classic symbolic of the presidential race itself: Jason Varitek's upstart, come-from-behind Sox from the home of liberal brahminism versus Roger Clemens' overpaid, (okay, all ballplayers are overpaid) monster-squad hailing from the artificial, astroturfed, megadomed home of Enron, the Swift Boat Vets PR operation, Karl Rove and Bushco itself. Could a miraculous Red Sox game 7 win help propel Kerry to victory? Well, first they have to beat the Yankees before they can exorcise the ghosts of Mike Dukakis and Bill Buckner.
Now on to the debate. Bush gave his strongest performance yet, but it wasn't good enough. He was on message, but he had little message to relay. Each time the topic veered away from religion, social issues or the No Child Left Behind Act, he steered it back to religion, social issues and the No Child Left Behind Act. Nevermind that that other liberal senator from Massachusetts is the jilted co-sponsor of his domestic policy cornerstone.
One interesting point came when Bob Schieffer asked Kerry and Bush about immigration, a simmering topic that both candidates have largely avoided. This is really the third rail of American politics. I've written a lengthy piece on the ramifications of Bush's immigration policy in Arizona; it will be up in Salon on Sunday evening after being pushed back.
Ultimately, the debate was less a policy contest than an opportunity for both candidates to display their contrasting values and experiences. Bush may have been more personable and in his rudimentary way of explaining policy, more plain-spoken. But there is little doubt, I think, that he failed to reverse the momentum Kerry's gathered in the last two debates. If Bush succeeded at anything, it was at steeling the resolve of his core conservative base, particularly the evangelical right.
Bush overt religiosity is more complex than a mere fundamentalist posture. By evoking the evangelical confessional tradition, -- "I was lost but now I'm found" -- the Christian right's will to power -- "A Charge To Keep" is his favorite hymnal -- and the Calvinistic image of a spiritual aristocrat pre-destined to wield authority, Bush embodies his administration's politically-driven, social Darwinist domestic agenda.
Meanwhile, Kerry has firmly aligned himself with the liberal Catholic tradition of social justice and good works, invoking the liberation theology the Opus Dei Vatican has worked so hard to eradicate: "I'm tired of all these politicians talking about family values when they don't value families," he stated.
In the end, this election is about values, about Americans' core cultural beliefs. It is a referendum on Bush's policies, no doubt, but because Bush conveys his policies through his personality in a way few presidents have, it is ultimately a referendum on Bush the man.
And now that Bush has been stripped of the haughty vestiges of the presidency three times before a national audience, the choice is clear.

What in the hell is that thing in Bush's ear? And I thought John Belushi was wired. 

This stupendous work of scholarship detailing the Dominionist Christian right's links to the Pentagon just came to me from Katherine Yurica of the Yurica Report (see my links section). The piece is dense and may seem arcane to anyone who isn't a hardcore right-wing watcher. But if you are, give it a read. Here's one of the my favorite sections:

Recently I found myself searching through the “contacts page” at the Trinity Broadcasting Network’s web site.[60] To my surprise, I found links to Navy Seals and to Lt. General Richard E. Carey of Rockwall, TX and General Richard Shaefer of Nashville, TN as well as to the Adolph Coors Evangelistic Association and Tom Cole at Headquarters of the Republican Party in Oklahoma City.

In following the link to the Navy Seals I came upon one of the blackest ministries on the web—literally—it’s called, “FORCE Ministries.” Their motto: “Equipping military personnel for Christ-centered duty.” It’s a secretive paramilitary organization. One can’t print their material out easily. One can’t print out the photos. But it’s a startling website.

The black pages highlight the stealth of men moving in the night, their eyes fixed on the scopes of their rifles aimed and ready to fire, they are frozen in a photo crossing a creek, covered by the water and by a deadly silence. The viewer has no doubt these men intend to shoot to kill. Suddenly a soldier pops up on the screen, his eyes flint cold against the blackness, his rifle ready for firing. There’s the sound of shots fired: “Mission: Christ Centered Duty” flashes. Another soldier fires: “Purpose: Impart Faith in Christ” flashes. Drums beat and music plays. And then silence again.

Force Ministries takes Matthew 11:12 as their “Defining passage:” It reads in the version quoted: “From the days of John the Baptist until now, the kingdom of heaven has been forcefully advancing, and forceful men lay hold of it.” NIV.

The web site states, “FORCE skydiving is a ministry to the military and through the military. The FORCE Ministry skydiving team is comprised of current and former Navy SEALs whose lives have been touched through FORCE.” In other words, FORCE is composed of men from the military’s “Special Operations” branch.

The website boasts a worldwide military ministry:

“Force Ministries will send and maintain military missionaries in strategic locations throughout the world. Funded through Morning Star Partnership Development, these workers will locate near military bases and campuses throughout the world. This effort will be headed by Lt. Col. Art (Raylee) Smith, USAF (Retired).”

In addition Force states that it will “provide a discipleship environment for Christian chaplains to encourage and support their efforts in the field.” The description continued: “Military Chaplains are integral to the spiritual condition of the troops when at sea or on deployment.” We are told that “Force will provide assistance (speakers, workers) to the base chaplains for services held on military installations.” (Emphasis mine.) I immediately wondered whether there was some lack in chaplains since according to Force, the chaplains need “discipleship” and apparently need outside speakers to help them. (It’s been my observation that pastors don’t like to share their pulpits with anyone—unless of course, they are not fully qualified as pastors.)

FORCE, in an astounding inconsistency, considering the deadly power of its presentation, sums up its role this way: “Our supreme desire is to know Christ and to be conformed into His image by the power of the Holy Spirit.”

Here is the link to Force Ministries.
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